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Liquidity Forecasting: A Must for 2020 Planning

No matter the movement in rate forecasts and growth expectations, liquidity remains critical for healthy institutions. In order to ensure that adequate liquidity sources are available in the event of the unexpected, institutions should employ tools and resources that provide comprehensive liquidity forecasts and ongoing stress tests in order to evaluate the overall effectiveness of the institution’s liquidity policies.

Liquidity & Liquidity Risk

A simple definition of liquidity is the capacity to meet cash & collateral obligations at a reasonable cost. This includes both expected & unexpected events. Liquidity risk is the risk of not being able to obtain funds at a reasonable price within a reasonable time period to meet those obligations as they come due.

Within the past twenty years, we’ve had two significant events that demonstrate why sound liquidity forecasting is imperative for institutions of all sizes. During the summer of 2008, Fannie and Freddie were conserved and Lehman Brothers and Merrill Lynch failed. While those broker-dealers didn’t have a deposit base like financial institutions do, their failure shows that a global event can impact a bank or credit union regardless of size. The Federal Home Loan Bank, which many financial institutions rely upon for their borrowings, was impacted. Also, the liquidity crisis also impacted the spreads on all assets and, therefore, the execution of security sales by financial institutions.

In 1998, the Asian Flu led to currency devaluations which flowed through Europe to the U.S. All major broker-dealers had given friendly terms to a hedge fund that made wrong way bets during this period, causing another liquidity crisis with far-reaching impacts.  

These events changed the regulatory environment and led to the Interagency Policy Statement on Funding & Liquidity Risk Management in March 2010. Banks and credit unions are now required to have much more in-depth liquidity forecasting as a result.  

Monitoring & Managing Liquidity

While your institution’s liquidity management policy is dependent upon the complexity of your balance sheet and funding sources, institutions of all sizes should always be aware of their current liquidity position. This includes a daily cash management sheet along with regularly forecasted ratios.

Institutions of all sizes should also identify alternative liquidity sources and clearly understand what their funding mix looks like to better manage it. As shown in the chart on the right, retail, wholesale and other/non-traditional funding sources should be explored.

While LCR is a regulatory requirement for the largest institutions, many of our clients have developed a 30-day coverage ratio as a best practice internally.

Integrating Liquidity Management

A financial institution needs a liquidity policy just as it must have an asset liability management policy and an investment policy. The policy should discuss sources and use, where you can go to borrow, your plan to raise additional liquidity.

As shown in the chart, the Liquidity Policy will work closely with your Contingency Funding Plan (CFP) which should include an action plan if warning indicators or policy limits are reached. Regular monitoring and establishing clear procedures, controls & limits are also vital parts of liquidity management.

Your CFP may include trigger points and should take institution
specific events into account when developing action plans. In addition to
identifying and assessing stress events and funding sources, the CFP
establishes the monitoring framework and the liquidity event management
process.

Contingent liability events may include:

  • Inability to fund asset growth
  • Inability to renew or replace maturing funding
  • Unexpected withdrawals
  • Changes in market value & price volatility
  • Changes in economic conditions, market
    perception, or dislocations in financial markets
  • Disturbances in payment & settlement systems
    due to operational or local disasters

Ensuring Safety & Soundness in 2020 and Beyond

Liquidity risk remains a major focus for financial
institutions and their regulators. Therefore, building a sound liquidity risk
management framework and CFP is crucial. In fact, failure to do so is
considered an unsafe & unsound practice. Be sure to use your controls,
limits, & guidelines.

Interested in learning more about effective liquidity forecasting? Contact ALM First at info@almfirst.com to request access to our recorded webinar, which includes a more in-depth discussion of best practices in liquidity management.

Michael Oravetz, Director, Investment Management Group

Michael Oravetz joined ALM First Financial Advisors in 2016. He is responsible for trading, portfolio management, and investment theme development inside the Investment Management Group, with a primary focus in credit products. Additionally, Michael serves in a client servicing capacity, delivering holistic balance sheet strategy downstream to depository clients including loan and deposit pricing, and the execution of funding and hedging strategies. Michael also participates in implementing firm-wide strategic initiatives and has assisted in ALM model validations, and whole loan valuation.

Cullen Coxe, Senior Director, Advisory Services

Cullen Coxe joined ALM First Financial Advisors in 2003. As a Senior Director for the firm, Cullen is primarily responsible for the client’s management team to customize and implement actionable and effective ALM and investment strategies to maximize client performance. Additionally, Cullen proactively designs sensitivity analyses and scenarios to test client balance sheet exposure to various factors and formulates action plans to optimize client performance within policy and risk tolerances. As a Senior Director, Cullen also ensures clients receive accurate and timely information.

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